What the business is worth from its cash flows, growth and risk: the probability-weighted average (expected value) of 2,000 simulated outcomes, with the discount rate at its estimate. The median and the base case, the model run with every input at its estimate, sit beside it.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Expected value (headline) | ¥6,577 |
| Median of the simulated values | ¥6,566 |
| Base case (deterministic run) | ¥6,597 |
| Assumption | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Finance arm debt (left out) | ¥40.95T | the captive finance arm's debt (S&P's finance division), out of the debt, beta and cost of capital: it funds the arm's loans and is valued with the arm |
| Finance arm pre-tax profit | ¥851.7B | Financial Services Operating Income (Fiscal.ai): median of the newest 3 pre-tax figures (TTM, fiscal years), out of operating income: each year's where known, else 1.7% of revenue; consensus operating income less the same share of consensus revenue |
| Risk-free rate | 2.49% | 3.05% latest 10Y govt bond (FRED IRLTLT01JPM156N, 2026-09) - 0.56% sovereign default spread |
| Finance arm cash (left out) | ¥5.524T | 39% of cash and short-term investments, the finance arm's tagged loans and receivables / total assets: funded by its debt and earning its profit, so inside its value and left out of the industrial net debt |
| Equity risk premium | 4.02% | mature 3.25% (Damodaran implied ERP, Oct 2026, less the US large caps' country risk 0.67%) + country risk 0.77% weighted by FY2026 revenue (Japan 35%, North America 33%, Asia 15%, Western Europe 10%, other; Damodaran country risk, Jul 2026) |
| Industry (own tables) | Auto Manufacturers, Japan | own operating tables, Auto Manufacturers: Japan n=9 > Developed Asia-Pacific n=25 > global n=94 [ours: operating_margin_sd, unlevered_beta; the rest Damodaran industry averages, Jan 2026, Auto & Truck, Japan] |
| Unlevered beta (industry) | 1.00 | corrected for cash: own operating tables, Auto Manufacturers: Japan n=9 > Developed Asia-Pacific n=25 > global n=94 [ours: operating_margin_sd, unlevered_beta; the rest Damodaran industry averages, Jan 2026, Auto & Truck, Japan] |
| own_beta | 120.12% | its own beta against its home market (2/3 two-year + 1/3 five-year regression, or the one that exists), standard error 0.13 |
| Beta | 1.12 | unlevered 1.00 x (1 + (1 - 30% tax (median effective rate, 5y, clamped 0-35%, at most the marginal rate)) x 0.06 market D/E); own-beta mix: 47% of the way from 1.04 to its own 1.20 |
| Cost of equity | 6.98% | Rf + beta x ERP (CAPM) |
| Tax rate (effective) | 30.53% | median effective rate, 5y, clamped 0-35%; years 1-5, then to the marginal rate by year 10 |
| Tax rate (marginal) | 29.74% | country marginal rate (Damodaran) |
| Cost of debt | 3.45% | Rf + 0.40% Aaa/AAA spread (no interest expense: infinite coverage, the top rating: Damodaran synthetic ratings, January 2026, large non-financial table) + 0.56% Japan default spread |
| Debt weight | 5.34% | debt / (debt + market cap of the group: the parent's and the minority owners' equity) |
| WACC (years 1-5) | 6.74% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - 30% tax (median effective rate, 5y, clamped 0-35%, at most the marginal rate)); years 1-5 |
| Cost of equity (mature) | 6.51% | Rf + ERP (beta 1: a mature company) |
| Debt weight (mature) | 20.79% | the market's debt / capital (our screener: debt / market value of 25,085 operating companies, all markets) |
| Cost of debt (mature) | 4.16% | Rf + 1.11% Baa2/BBB spread (the market's rating: Damodaran Total Market (without financials), Global D/E and US cost of debt, Jan 2026) + 0.56% Japan default spread |
| WACC (mature, after year 10) | 5.76% | mature Re, debt weight and Rd, marginal tax; reached in year 10 |
| Terminal growth | 2.49% | = risk-free rate (long-run nominal growth) |
| Revenue growth (year 1) | 6.97% | consensus revenue, year 1 |
| Revenue growth (fade start) | 2.90% | consensus revenue growth in year 3, fading to terminal growth by year 10 |
| Operating margin (last fiscal year) | 5.76% | last fiscal year operating margin |
| Operating margin (year 1, consensus) | 5.57% | consensus operating income / revenue, year 1 |
| Operating margin (year 2, consensus) | 6.64% | consensus operating income / revenue, year 2 |
| Operating margin (year 3, consensus) | 7.11% | consensus operating income / revenue, year 3 |
| Operating margin (target) | 7.11% | consensus operating income / revenue, year 3; reached in year 5, a straight line from the year-3 consensus margin |
| Sales to capital (to year 5) | 1.00 | industry sales / invested capital: own operating tables, Auto Manufacturers: Japan n=9 > Developed Asia-Pacific n=25 > global n=94 [ours: operating_margin_sd, unlevered_beta; the rest Damodaran industry averages, Jan 2026, Auto & Truck, Japan] (own invested capital includes the finance arm's loans); years 1-5 |
| Share of year 1 still to come | 39.22% | valued 2026-11-08, 61% of year 1 (the fiscal year after 2026-03-31) past: year t discounted over t - 1 + 0.39 years; 50% of year 1's cash flow counted, the rest is in the 2026-09-30 balance sheet's cash and debt |
| Return on new capital (terminal) | 7.23% | stable WACC + 80% of the own median after-tax ROIC's excess over it (5y, 7.6%), the excess at most 7% |
| Sales to capital (year 10) | 1.45 | RONIC 7.2% / (target margin 7.1% x (1 - 30% marginal tax)): new capital earns the terminal return; a straight line from the years 1-5 ratio 1.00 over years 6-10 |
| Finance arm cost of equity | 7.93% | Rf + beta x ERP; Financial Svcs. (Non-bank & Insurance) levered beta 1.35, not relevered: Damodaran industry averages, Jan 2026, Financial Svcs. (Non-bank & Insurance), Japan (debt_to_equity, unlevered_beta: Global, the Japan figure is implausible) |
| Finance arm value (added) | ¥7.547T | net income 598,419,877,200 (profit after the 30% marginal tax) / cost of equity: a return on equity equal to its cost, so growth adds nothing; added to the equity value |
| Net debt | (¥11.97T) | total debt - cash |
| Minority interests | ¥1.457T | 2% of the group's equity value before minorities (their share of group profit, pooled over the record; the book rule's 593,253m is the least), subtracted: outside owners' share of subsidiaries |
| Long-term investments | ¥16.10T | long-term investments at book value, added: their income is not in FCFF |
| Return on capital (year 10) | 7.37% | year-10 EBIT(1-t) / (last operating capital, less goodwill, + 10 years' reinvestment); terminal RONIC 7.2% |
| Industry operating margin, bottom quartile | (1.34%) | Q1 of operating margin across 72 companies in the industry (our screener) |
| Industry operating margin, top quartile | 7.01% | Q3 of operating margin, same 72 companies; a warning needs a value beyond the fences -14% to 20% (1.5 x IQR) |
| Industry ROIC, bottom quartile | 0.06% | Q1 of ROIC (5-year average, else latest) across 73 companies in the industry (our screener) |
| Industry ROIC, top quartile | 15.91% | Q3 of ROIC (5-year average, else latest), same 73 companies; a warning needs a value beyond the fences -24% to 40% (1.5 x IQR) |
| Spread: consensus revenue (simulation) | 3.84% | one lognormal shock on the 3 consensus years; year-3 spread: analyst high/low range / d2(analysts) x sqrt(1 + 1/analysts) (uncalibrated: not yet checked against realised forecast errors) |
| Spread: revenue growth (simulation) | 4.18% | revenue growth after consensus: standard deviation of own year-on-year revenue growth, 5-year rolling averages (9y); floored at -10%, above 25% compressed smoothly to at most 35% |
| Spread: target margin (simulation) | 1.00% | target operating margin: floor 1% (standard deviation of own operating margin, 5-year rolling averages (10y): 0.6%) |
| Spread: discount rate (simulation) | 1.00% | discount rate: one shift of the whole schedule (today's and the mature rate together), standard deviation of the estimate's own error (beta, equity risk premium); terminal growth stays MIN_SPREAD below it |
| Spread: own ROIC behind the terminal (simulation) | 1.18% | own after-tax ROIC behind the terminal RONIC (the terminal rule applied to each draw with the draw's stable WACC: nothing at or below it, the excess at most 7%): own after-tax ROIC, held between the stable WACC and its cap: single-year standard deviation / √5 (5y) |
| Year | Revenue | Growth | Op. margin | Tax | EBIT(1-t) | Reinvestment | FCFF | Cost of capital | Discount | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ¥54.22T | 6.97% | 5.57% | 30.53% | ¥2.099T | ¥3.537T | (¥1.438T) | 6.74% | 0.97 | (¥699.6B) |
| 2 | ¥55.80T | 2.92% | 6.64% | 30.53% | ¥2.573T | ¥1.586T | ¥986.7B | 6.74% | 0.91 | ¥901.1B |
| 3 | ¥57.42T | 2.90% | 7.11% | 30.53% | ¥2.836T | ¥1.619T | ¥1.217T | 6.74% | 0.86 | ¥1.041T |
| 4 | ¥59.05T | 2.84% | 7.11% | 30.53% | ¥2.917T | ¥1.633T | ¥1.284T | 6.74% | 0.80 | ¥1.030T |
| 5 | ¥60.69T | 2.78% | 7.11% | 30.53% | ¥2.998T | ¥1.644T | ¥1.354T | 6.74% | 0.75 | ¥1.017T |
| 6 | ¥62.34T | 2.72% | 7.11% | 30.37% | ¥3.087T | ¥1.518T | ¥1.569T | 6.54% | 0.70 | ¥1.106T |
| 7 | ¥64.00T | 2.66% | 7.11% | 30.22% | ¥3.176T | ¥1.410T | ¥1.767T | 6.35% | 0.66 | ¥1.171T |
| 8 | ¥65.67T | 2.61% | 7.11% | 30.06% | ¥3.266T | ¥1.315T | ¥1.951T | 6.15% | 0.62 | ¥1.218T |
| 9 | ¥67.34T | 2.55% | 7.11% | 29.90% | ¥3.357T | ¥1.232T | ¥2.125T | 5.96% | 0.59 | ¥1.252T |
| 10 | ¥69.02T | 2.49% | 7.11% | 29.74% | ¥3.448T | ¥1.158T | ¥2.291T | 5.76% | 0.56 | ¥1.276T |
Terminal value: 80.90% of the DCF value.
Reference Range, central 50% (model-implied, not yet calibrated): ¥5,783 to ¥7,725. Half of 2,000 simulated values fall inside it (median ¥6,566); 100% are above today's price. The central 80% range, the 10th to 90th percentile, is ¥5,258 to ¥9,051.
Calibration: none. We have not yet tested how often real outcomes land inside ranges like this, so it is not a confidence interval and not a hit rate. It shows how far our inputs could move the value.
Simulated: consensus revenue, revenue growth after consensus, target operating margin, own return on capital behind the terminal, varied within the analysts' estimate range or the company's own history. The discount rate is drawn too, one standard deviation of 1 percentage point: it prices the cash flows' risk, but our estimate of it (beta, equity risk premium) is uncertain in its own right. Terminal growth stays below it. The base case is the run at the estimated rate, so it sits below the median of the draws (a lower rate adds more value than a higher one takes). The range width (narrow, moderate or wide) and the SE Grade's reading of uncertainty use the 80% range with the rate at its estimate, so they compare companies on their own cash-flow uncertainty (the rate's error is common to all).
| Method | Value | Range | How |
|---|---|---|---|
| industry P/E | ¥2,915 | ¥1,713 – ¥5,539 | TTM EPS x trailing 8.5x: median of 7 peers (Auto Manufacturers, Japan) moved to 3-year forward EPS growth 9% (their median 37%; ln multiple +2.14 per unit of growth), SA screener, 2026-11-10; FY1 EPS x forward 8.7x: median of 9 peers (Auto Manufacturers, Japan), SA screener, 2026-11-10; mean of the two |
| own P/E history | ¥3,065 | ¥2,395 – ¥3,451 | FY1 EPS (reported basis) x 10Y median P/E 9.8x |
What similar companies (and this one, historically) sell for. A different question from intrinsic value, so not weighted into it. With three or more methods, one more than 3× off their median is left out. Range: the middle 80% of each method's simulated values, with the peer multiple read across the peer group's spread, widened so it holds 80% of peers' actual multiples (own multiples: across own history), and FY1 EPS across the analysts' range. For banks and capital markets firms, industry P/B is read off their return on equity, along the line their peers' P/B follows, when that line fits well enough.
Equity risk premiums, industry betas and returns: Damodaran; bond yields: OECD (snapshot 2026-10-25). Peer betas and multiples, analyst consensus: stockanalysis.com. An estimate, not advice.
How we got the stars: the business (Quality and Moat), the price's move of at most one notch, and the rank cap.