Julius Bär's first half of 2026 was driven by client activity, which the call described as exceptionally strong, especially in the first quarter. Revenue rose 18.5% year on year to CHF 2.299B, and diluted EPS of CHF 3.27 was up 127.5%. Management pointed to higher income from FX and metals trading and structured products, with lower deposit rates also trimming interest expense. SE fair value of CHF 82 is 20.1% above the price of CHF 67.90.
Revenue growth is accelerating, at +18.5% in H1 FY2026 against +5.7% in H2 FY2025, yet management signalled that activity moderated in Q2. Net new money for FY2026 is expected below 2025, and the de-risking headwind is expected to spill into 2027, with normalisation in 2028. The CEO put it as "short-term pain for long-term gain." The H2 cost-income ratio is guided below 67%, and cost to achieve should more than double from CHF 7 million in H1. Analysts were cautious on releveraging. The call is from 21 July.
Consensus expects FY2026 EPS growth of +42.0% on revenue growth of +12.6%, a sharp step up from the five-year record. For FY2027 the pace drops: EPS growth of +3.2%, which fits management's flow commentary and the fading of first-half activity. The forward earnings yield is therefore carried by this year's jump, not by further expansion. The company has not had a quarter in which it missed, as far as the estimates show here, so the bar rests on H2 matching H1.
Returns have eroded over three years. ROTE fell from 25.3% in FY2022 to 16.6% in FY2025, net margin from 24.5% to 19.2%, and ROE from 14.6% to 10.9%, all worse. Return on assets is 1.0%, in line with its median, but sits below the peer median of 3.3%; that and the share count growth are what hold Quality back. Current ROE of 16.2% sits above the peer median of 14.0%, which shows the first-half rebound lifted returns but not yet to the earlier levels.
Trailing P/E of 12.2x is below its ten-year median of 15.0x, and the forward multiple is 11.2x on FY2026 estimates. SE fair value of CHF 82 is 20.1% above the price, with high confidence and a central range of CHF 76 to CHF 89. The analyst target of CHF 78 is 14.8% above the price. For the price to hold, H2 income has to stay close to the first-half pace and flows must not worsen beyond management's de-risking guidance. A cost-income ratio above 67% would show it is not.
The SE Score is 1 of 3. Quality earns 2 of 3: ROE of 11% clears a 4.5% cost of equity, though ROA of 1.0% and thin equity to assets of 6.3% hold it back. Moat earns 2 of 3: ROE above 12% in five of ten years and book value per share rising in seven of nine. Value earns 3 of 3, with the price below SE fair value, and left the business tier as it was. A rank cap lowered the overall score from 2 stars.
Julius Bär Gruppe AG provides wealth management solutions to clients in Switzerland, Europe, the Americas, Asia, and internationally. Its offering comprises investment advisory and discretionary mandates, structured products, securities execution and advisory, private markets and fund offerings, wealth planning, and family office services, and it also offers open product platform services as part of its range.