HAL's first half of FY2026 was a step back: revenue of €6.318B fell 8.8% year on year and diluted EPS of €9.48 fell 16.3%, both well short of the five-year compounding rates of +19.3% and +20.9%. In FY2025 the Asia segment shrank 16.0% while USA & Canada grew 20.7%, so the decline is uneven rather than broad. At €169.60, SE fair value of €371 is 118.5% above the price, though the Quality and Moat scores are weak.
Revenue momentum is slowing: -8.8% year on year in H1 FY2026 against -4.7% in H2 FY2025. If that pace persists, the next twelve months bring a lower sales base before any recovery. The consensus years point the same way, with revenue and earnings both expected to be lower this year and earnings lower again the next. A rebound would need Asia to stabilise while the faster-growing regions keep expanding, and nothing in the half-year numbers shows that yet.
Consensus, from a single analyst, puts FY2026 EPS growth at -15.4% and revenue growth at -1.3%, so the earnings decline outpaces the sales decline. For FY2027 it expects EPS growth of -15.0%, a second year of contraction. Our own projection for FY2027 EPS is €16.54, 41% above the €11.71 consensus, though our 80% interval is very wide. The forward numbers therefore do not yet validate the discount, and the beat record is not shown.
Margins have improved over three years. FCF margin moved from 5.1% in FY2022 to 11.5% in FY2025 (+6.4pp, up, better), and it now stands at 13.0% against a five-year median of 9.9%, yet it ranks only in the ninth percentile of size-matched peers. Net margin moved from 5.9% to 12.1% (+6.2pp), and gross margin from 54.5% to 60.1% (+5.6pp). Quality is held back by share count growth and by free cash flow conversion of net income.
The stock trades at 10.7x trailing earnings against a ten-year own median of 15.6x, which is cheaper than its history. SE fair value of €371 is 118.5% above the price, with medium confidence; the model rests on discounted cash flow, and terminal value is 61% of the total. The median analyst target of €182 is 7.3% above the price, a far smaller gap. For the discount to close, earnings must stabilise near the model's base case; a second year of falling EPS would be the signal that it will not.
The SE Score is not rated: Quality or Moat sits at zero, which marks a weak business. Quality earns 2 of 3 stars on a return on invested capital of 11% against a 6.5% cost of capital, plus net cash and 14.7x interest cover. Moat earns 0 of 3, since ROIC has not topped 15% in any of the last ten years and each euro retained has created negative market value. Value earns 3 of 3, with fair value well above the price and the P/E below its own history.
HAL Trust operates through multiple sectors in Asia, the Middle East, the Netherlands, the United States, Canada and internationally. It sells maritime and salvage services, medical aid products, hearing aids, consumer electronics, optical retail, composite panels, building materials, offshore equipment, financial media, residential construction, technical personnel, and healthcare software and payment solutions.