CVC's first half was a realization story: record exits and realization-led performance fees lifted revenue 18.4% year on year, while fee-paying AUM grew 19% on credit, secondaries and infrastructure. Yet H1 diluted EPS rose only 0.1%, to €0.31, so revenue growth did not reach the bottom line. SE fair value of €59 is 306.0% above the price of €14.46, but it is a medium-confidence cash-flow estimate and was clipped as implausible.
On the July 30 call, management said full-year realizations should be broadly similar to last year and that total operating cost growth should land slightly below 10%, with higher growth in the second half. Aggregate performance-related earnings guidance for 2026 and 2027 was maintained. Fund X is targeted at the size of Fund IX or larger, with the target due in September. On slowing wealth demand, management cited net inflows into all evergreen products in both quarters. It also called credit deployment muted and selective amid lower sponsor activity.
Consensus looks well below the recent run rate. Analysts expect FY2026 EPS of €0.79, up 0.6%, then €0.92 for FY2027, up 15.5%. Our projections are far higher: €1.45 for FY2026, 83% above consensus, with an 80% interval of plus or minus 127%, and €1.78 for FY2027. Those intervals are very wide, so the gap is a statement of uncertainty as much as of conviction. The price implies revenue shrinking 7.1% a year for five years, against consensus growth of 4.0% for FY2026.
Profitability is high but off its recent peak. Net margin of 48.2% is above its 5-year median and ranks in the 79th percentile of peers, and operating margin of 51.2% is well above the peer median of 30.4%. Returns tell a mixed story: ROIC of 30.4% and ROE of 68.3% sit below their own 5-year medians, yet rank in the 86th and 90th percentiles of peers. The weak spot is cash conversion: free cash flow is 0.73x net income, worse than its median and in the 15th percentile of peers.
At 16.3x trailing earnings the stock ranks in the 28th percentile of peers, and its own 10-year median P/E is 49.6x. Forward P/E is 18.2x for FY2026 and 15.8x for FY2027. SE fair value of €59 is 306.0% above the price, with a central 50% interval of €47 to €74. Terminal value makes up 85% of it, so it rests on distant cash flows. The mean analyst target of €18 is 22.8% above the price. For the price to hold, performance fees must hold near the guided level. Watch debt to equity, at 1.07x and worse than its median, and any slip in fee-paying AUM growth from 19%.
The SE Score is 2 of 3. Quality earns 3 of 3: a three-year median ROIC of 44% far exceeds the 8.1% cost of capital, free cash flow covers 97% of net income over three years, and interest cover is 19.7x. Moat earns 2 of 3, as ROIC stayed above 15% in all three years of data, but that history is too short to confirm durability. Value earns 3 of 3 because the price sits well below SE fair value, and it left the business tier at 2 as it was.
CVC Capital Partners plc is a private equity and venture capital firm offering buyouts, growth equity, secondaries, infrastructure and credit strategies, including senior secured loans and direct lending. It invests in medium to large companies across many sectors, including software, healthcare and industrials, across Europe, North America, Asia and Australia, with a focus on France, Italy, Germany and Switzerland.