Analyst & Spread
Estimate Spread
How tight the range around an estimate is. Shown as 0–3 dots: more dots, a tighter spread.
Definition
Each forward-looking estimate on a Standard Equity report carries an Estimate Spread: how wide the range around it is, relative to the estimate. A wider range earns fewer dots. It describes spread, not the chance of being right.
Formula
Internal score ≈ max(0, 1 − log10(1 + relative range width))
Why it matters
A point estimate without its spread is misleading: it suggests precision the model does not have. The dots show which estimates are tight and which are little more than directional guesses.
How Standard Equity uses it
Displayed as 0–3 dots next to estimate cells, by the 80% interval's width as a share of the value: 3 dots = tight (within ±15%), 2 = moderate (±30%), 1 = wide (±60%), 0 = very wide (wider). For margins and other ratios the interval is in percentage points, judged against the ratio's size (±3pp on a 10% margin is ±30%). A horizontal line through the dots marks a Consensus Estimate; no line marks a Modelled Estimate.
The metric
| Category | Analyst & Spread |
|---|---|
| Unit | dots (0–3) |