What the business is worth from its cash flows, growth and risk: the probability-weighted average (expected value) of 2,000 simulated outcomes, with the discount rate at its estimate. The median and the base case, the model run with every input at its estimate, sit beside it.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Expected value (headline) | 4,259p |
| Median of the simulated values | 4,224p |
| Base case (deterministic run) | 4,208p |
| Assumption | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-free rate | 4.77% | 4.99% latest 10Y govt bond (OECD 10Y USA, 2021-10..2026-09) - 0.22% sovereign default spread |
| Equity risk premium | 4.48% | mature 3.25% (Damodaran implied ERP, Oct 2026, less the US large caps' country risk 0.67%) + country risk 1.23% weighted by FY2025 revenue (Asia + Australia & New Zealand + Africa 34%, Western Europe 24%, United States 22%, United Kingdom 11%, other; Damodaran country risk, Jul 2026) |
| Industry (own tables) | Oil & Gas Integrated, United Kingdom | own operating tables, Oil & Gas Integrated: United Kingdom n=1 > Western Europe n=9 > global n=30 [ours: operating_margin_sd, unlevered_beta; the rest Damodaran industry averages, Jan 2026, Oil/Gas (Integrated), Europe] |
| Unlevered beta (industry) | 0.28 | corrected for cash: own operating tables, Oil & Gas Integrated: United Kingdom n=1 > Western Europe n=9 > global n=30 [ours: operating_margin_sd, unlevered_beta; the rest Damodaran industry averages, Jan 2026, Oil/Gas (Integrated), Europe] |
| own_beta | 42.32% | its own beta against its home market (2/3 two-year + 1/3 five-year regression, or the one that exists), standard error 0.15 |
| Beta | 0.37 | unlevered 0.28 x (1 + (1 - 25% tax (median effective rate, 5y, clamped 0-35%, at most the marginal rate)) x 0.26 market D/E); own-beta mix: 44% of the way from 0.33 to its own 0.42 |
| Cost of equity | 6.44% | Rf + beta x ERP (CAPM) |
| Tax rate (effective) | 35.00% | median effective rate, 5y, clamped 0-35%; years 1-5, then to the marginal rate by year 10 |
| Tax rate (marginal) | 25.00% | country marginal rate (Damodaran) |
| Interest coverage | 9.80 | mean EBIT of years 1-3, consensus operating income / interest expense: rating Aaa/AAA |
| Cost of debt | 5.65% | Rf + 0.40% Aaa/AAA spread (Damodaran synthetic ratings, January 2026, large non-financial table) + 0.48% United Kingdom default spread |
| Debt weight | 20.65% | debt / (debt + market cap of the group: the parent's and the minority owners' equity) |
| WACC (years 1-5) | 5.99% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - 25% tax (median effective rate, 5y, clamped 0-35%, at most the marginal rate)); years 1-5 |
| Cost of equity (mature) | 9.25% | Rf + ERP (beta 1: a mature company) |
| Debt weight (mature) | 20.79% | the market's debt / capital (our screener: debt / market value of 25,085 operating companies, all markets) |
| Cost of debt (mature) | 6.36% | Rf + 1.11% Baa2/BBB spread (the market's rating: Damodaran Total Market (without financials), Global D/E and US cost of debt, Jan 2026) + 0.48% United Kingdom default spread |
| WACC (mature, after year 10) | 8.32% | mature Re, debt weight and Rd, marginal tax; reached in year 10 |
| Terminal growth | 4.77% | = risk-free rate (long-run nominal growth) |
| Revenue growth (year 1) | 31.21% | consensus revenue, year 1 |
| Revenue growth (fade start) | (8.71%) | consensus revenue growth in year 3, fading to terminal growth by year 10 |
| Operating margin (last fiscal year) | 11.18% | last fiscal year operating margin |
| Operating margin (year 1, consensus) | 16.81% | consensus operating income / revenue, year 1 |
| Operating margin (year 2, consensus) | 14.82% | consensus operating income / revenue, year 2 (15.0%), moved 100% of the way to the line from year 1 to the target, as its margin record is cyclical |
| Operating margin (year 3, consensus) | 12.83% | consensus operating income / revenue, year 3 (13.5%), moved 100% of the way to the line from year 1 to the target, as its margin record is cyclical |
| Operating margin (target) | 8.84% | consensus operating income / revenue, year 3 13.5%, capped at 1 x the median own operating margin over 10y (8.8%); reached in year 5, a straight line from the year-3 consensus margin |
| Reinvestment, % of revenue (model, consensus years) | 2.38% | new revenue / sales-to-capital 1.35, as a share of revenue over years 1-3 |
| Reinvestment, % of revenue (consensus years) | (1.66%) | consensus reinvestment / revenue over years 1-3; reinvestment = EBIT(1-t) - after-tax net interest + stock-based comp - consensus FCF (no stock-based comp history: taken as 0); years 1-3 |
| Sales to capital (to year 5) | 1.35 | industry sales / invested capital: own operating tables, Oil & Gas Integrated: United Kingdom n=1 > Western Europe n=9 > global n=30 [ours: operating_margin_sd, unlevered_beta; the rest Damodaran industry averages, Jan 2026, Oil/Gas (Integrated), Europe]; years 4-5 |
| Share of year 1 still to come | 14.58% | valued 2026-11-08, 85% of year 1 (the fiscal year after 2025-12-31) past: year t discounted over t - 1 + 0.15 years; 25% of year 1's cash flow counted, the rest is in the 2026-09-30 balance sheet's cash and debt |
| Return on new capital (terminal) | 11.35% | stable WACC + 80% of the own median after-tax ROIC's excess over it (5y, 12.1%), the excess at most 7% |
| Sales to capital (year 10) | 1.71 | RONIC 11.3% / (target margin 8.8% x (1 - 25% marginal tax)): new capital earns the terminal return; a straight line from the years 1-5 ratio 1.35 over years 6-10 |
| Probability of failure | 0.67% | 10-year cumulative default rate, Aaa/AAA (S&P Global Ratings, 2024 Annual Global Corporate Default And Rating Transition Study (Mar 2025), 10-year cumulative default rate, 1981-2024) |
| Proceeds if it fails | $102.6B | 50% of book operating capital (equity + debt - cash - goodwill), last year |
| Net debt | $39.65B | total debt - cash |
| Minority interests | $5.357B | 2% of the group's equity value before minorities (their share of group profit, pooled over the record; the book rule's 1,860m is the least), subtracted: outside owners' share of subsidiaries |
| Long-term investments | $28.61B | long-term investments at book value, added: their income is not in FCFF |
| Return on capital (year 10) | 10.77% | year-10 EBIT(1-t) / (last operating capital, less goodwill, + 10 years' reinvestment); terminal RONIC 11.3% |
| Industry operating margin, bottom quartile | 9.52% | Q1 of operating margin across 25 companies in the industry (our screener) |
| Industry operating margin, top quartile | 22.39% | Q3 of operating margin, same 25 companies; a warning needs a value beyond the fences -10% to 42% (1.5 x IQR) |
| Industry ROIC, bottom quartile | 9.69% | Q1 of ROIC (5-year average, else latest) across 25 companies in the industry (our screener) |
| Industry ROIC, top quartile | 14.11% | Q3 of ROIC (5-year average, else latest), same 25 companies; a warning needs a value beyond the fences 3% to 21% (1.5 x IQR) |
| Spread: consensus revenue (simulation) | 9.39% | one lognormal shock on the 3 consensus years; year-3 spread: analyst high/low range / d2(analysts) x sqrt(1 + 1/analysts) (uncalibrated: not yet checked against realised forecast errors) |
| Spread: revenue growth (simulation) | 4.34% | revenue growth after consensus: standard deviation of own year-on-year revenue growth, 5-year rolling averages (9y); floored at -10%, above 25% compressed smoothly to at most 35% |
| Spread: target margin (simulation) | 3.37% | target operating margin: standard deviation of own operating margin, 5-year rolling averages (10y) |
| Spread: discount rate (simulation) | 1.00% | discount rate: one shift of the whole schedule (today's and the mature rate together), standard deviation of the estimate's own error (beta, equity risk premium); terminal growth stays MIN_SPREAD below it |
| Spread: own ROIC behind the terminal (simulation) | 1.07% | own after-tax ROIC behind the terminal RONIC (the terminal rule applied to each draw with the draw's stable WACC: nothing at or below it, the excess at most 7%): own after-tax ROIC, held between the stable WACC and its cap: single-year standard deviation / √5 (5y) |
| simulated_failure | 0.68% | per draw: the synthetic rating of the draw's years 1-3 EBIT / interest sets its failure probability (10-year cumulative default rate) and, as a spread change, its cost of debt in years 1-5; mean over draws shown |
| Year | Revenue | Growth | Op. margin | Tax | EBIT(1-t) | Reinvestment | FCFF | Cost of capital | Discount | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $350.2B | 31.21% | 16.81% | 35.00% | $38.27B | ($5.811B) | $44.08B | 5.99% | 0.99 | $11.04B |
| 2 | $326.7B | (6.70%) | 14.82% | 35.00% | $31.47B | ($5.422B) | $36.89B | 5.99% | 0.94 | $34.51B |
| 3 | $298.2B | (8.71%) | 12.83% | 35.00% | $24.86B | ($4.949B) | $29.81B | 5.99% | 0.88 | $26.32B |
| 4 | $278.0B | (6.79%) | 10.83% | 35.00% | $19.58B | ($14.98B) | $34.55B | 5.99% | 0.83 | $28.78B |
| 5 | $264.5B | (4.86%) | 8.84% | 35.00% | $15.20B | ($9.999B) | $25.20B | 5.99% | 0.79 | $19.80B |
| 6 | $256.7B | (2.93%) | 8.84% | 33.00% | $15.21B | ($5.453B) | $20.66B | 6.45% | 0.74 | $15.25B |
| 7 | $254.1B | (1.01%) | 8.84% | 31.00% | $15.50B | ($1.731B) | $17.23B | 6.92% | 0.69 | $11.90B |
| 8 | $256.5B | 0.92% | 8.84% | 29.00% | $16.10B | $1.489B | $14.61B | 7.39% | 0.64 | $9.393B |
| 9 | $263.8B | 2.84% | 8.84% | 27.00% | $17.02B | $4.450B | $12.57B | 7.85% | 0.60 | $7.495B |
| 10 | $276.3B | 4.77% | 8.84% | 25.00% | $18.32B | $7.353B | $10.97B | 8.32% | 0.55 | $6.037B |
Terminal value: 50.31% of the DCF value.
Reference Range, central 50% (model-implied, not yet calibrated): 3,347p to 5,298p. Half of 2,000 simulated values fall inside it (median 4,224p); 64% are above today's price. The central 80% range, the 10th to 90th percentile, is 2,607p to 6,553p.
Calibration: none. We have not yet tested how often real outcomes land inside ranges like this, so it is not a confidence interval and not a hit rate. It shows how far our inputs could move the value.
Simulated: consensus revenue, revenue growth after consensus, target operating margin, own return on capital behind the terminal, varied within the analysts' estimate range or the company's own history. The discount rate is drawn too, one standard deviation of 1 percentage point: it prices the cash flows' risk, but our estimate of it (beta, equity risk premium) is uncertain in its own right. Terminal growth stays below it. The base case is the run at the estimated rate, so it sits below the median of the draws (a lower rate adds more value than a higher one takes). The range width (narrow, moderate or wide) and the SE Grade's reading of uncertainty use the 80% range with the rate at its estimate, so they compare companies on their own cash-flow uncertainty (the rate's error is common to all).
A market-expectations diagnostic. It does not change the Reference Value.
The price needs revenue to grow 1.0x in 10 years; judgement base rates put that at or below the typical (median) outcome for very large companies with revenue growing under 5% a year (round values from survivors, not measured).
| To justify today's price | Needed | Base case |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, years 1-5 | (1.33%) | |
| Year-10 revenue vs today | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Operating margin from year 5 | 7.41% | 8.84% |
Each row changes one thing and keeps the rest of the base case. Base rates: judgement, survivor-biased, replace when point-in-time panel exists.
| Method | Value | Range | How |
|---|---|---|---|
| industry P/E | 5,345p | 2,558p – 10,909p | TTM EPS x trailing 15.0x: median of 6 peers (Energy sector, United Kingdom) moved to 3-year forward EPS growth 17% (their median 10%; ln multiple +2.14 per unit of growth), SA screener, 2026-11-10; FY1 EPS x forward 8.7x: median of 8 peers (Energy sector, United Kingdom), SA screener, 2026-11-10; mean of the two |
| own P/E history | 5,982p | 3,085p – 16,514p | FY1 EPS (reported basis) x 10Y median P/E 11.7x |
| industry EV/EBITDA | 3,149p | 2,461p – 10,066p | (TTM EBITDA x 3.8x: median of 8 peers (Energy sector, United Kingdom) moved to 3-year forward revenue growth 4% (their median 3%; ln multiple +2.73 per unit of growth), SA screener, 2026-11-10) - net debt |
What similar companies (and this one, historically) sell for. A different question from intrinsic value, so not weighted into it. With three or more methods, one more than 3× off their median is left out. Range: the middle 80% of each method's simulated values, with the peer multiple read across the peer group's spread, widened so it holds 80% of peers' actual multiples (own multiples: across own history), and FY1 EPS across the analysts' range. For banks and capital markets firms, industry P/B is read off their return on equity, along the line their peers' P/B follows, when that line fits well enough.
Equity risk premiums, industry betas and returns: Damodaran; bond yields: OECD (snapshot 2026-10-25). Peer betas and multiples, analyst consensus: stockanalysis.com. An estimate, not advice.
How we got the stars: the business (Quality and Moat), the price's move of at most one notch, and the rank cap.