# Reference Range (central 50%)

The range holding the middle 50% of our simulated values (25th to 75th percentile). Model-implied, not yet calibrated.

## Definition

Half of the simulated values fall between the 25th and 75th percentiles; the wider 10th to 90th range (eight in ten) is in the workings. It describes how far our inputs (analyst estimates, the company's own history, the discount rate) can move the value. It is not a confidence interval: we have not yet tested how often real outcomes land inside it, and the model's own mistakes are not in it.

## Why it matters

A wide interval means the value depends heavily on inputs we are unsure of. A narrow one means our inputs agree, which is not the same as being right.

## How Standard Equity uses it

Drawn as a bracket on the price chart, with the wider 10th to 90th range fainter behind it, and listed in the Reference Value workings with a one-line calibration status (currently none). The range width (narrow, moderate, wide) and the SE Grade's price band read the 10th to 90th range with the discount rate held at its estimate, so they compare companies on their own cash-flow uncertainty. Coverage tests will be run once there is enough history of past estimates.

## The metric

| Category | Valuation |
| -------- | --------- |
| Unit     | $         |

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