# Estimate Spread

How tight the range around an estimate is. Shown as 0–3 dots: more dots, a tighter spread.

## Definition

Each forward-looking estimate on a Standard Equity report carries an Estimate Spread: how wide the range around it is, relative to the estimate. A wider range earns fewer dots. It describes spread, not the chance of being right.

## Formula

Internal score ≈ max(0, 1 − log10(1 + relative range width))

## Why it matters

A point estimate without its spread is misleading: it suggests precision the model does not have. The dots show which estimates are tight and which are little more than directional guesses.

## How Standard Equity uses it

Displayed as 0–3 dots next to estimate cells, by the 80% interval's width as a share of the value: 3 dots = tight (within ±15%), 2 = moderate (±30%), 1 = wide (±60%), 0 = very wide (wider). For margins and other ratios the interval is in percentage points, judged against the ratio's size (±3pp on a 10% margin is ±30%). A horizontal line through the dots marks a Consensus Estimate; no line marks a Modelled Estimate.

## The metric

| Category | Analyst & Spread |
| -------- | ---------------- |
| Unit     | dots (0–3)       |

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