# Roche Holding AG (SWX:RO)

As of Sun 8 Nov 2026 12:00 UTC (weekly snapshot). Full report: https://standard-equity.report/SWX/RO

Price CHF 390.30 (CHF), market cap CHF 310.9B, Healthcare - Drug Manufacturers - General.

## Valuation

- SE Reference Value (expected value, DCF): CHF 665.88 (central 50% range CHF 547.47 to CHF 836.41), +71% against the price; range width narrow
- SE Grade: 2 of 3 (Value 3, Quality 3, Moat 2)
- Consensus Rating: Buy (Strong buy 7, Buy 4, Hold 10, Sell 0, Strong sell 1)
- Consensus Price (mean): CHF 404.59, +4% against the price

## Key metrics

Financials in CHF. Peer percentile: 100 = best in the peer group.

| Metric | Now | 5Y median | 10Y median | Peers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | CHF 62.96B | CAGR 1.0% | CAGR 2.1% | P93 |
| Revenue growth | -0.8% | 1.5% | 3.2% | P0 |
| Gross margin | 74.2% | 74.2% | 72.7% | P59 |
| Operating margin | 33.1% | 31.3% | 31.6% | P63 |
| Net margin | 19.6% | 19.0% | 18.9% | P72 |
| FCF yield | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | P57 |
| FCF margin | 25.0% | 23.8% | 25.5% | P83 |
| FCF / net income | 1.28x | 1.17x | 1.21x | P56 |
| ROIC | 29.2% | 30.8% | 34.1% | P80 |
| ROE | 40.2% | 40.1% | 40.1% | P82 |
| ROA | 12.6% | 12.8% | 13.1% | P86 |
| EPS | CHF 15.29 | CAGR -0.6% | CAGR 4.1% | - |
| EPS growth | 30.2% | -5.1% | -2.0% | P68 |
| Book value per share | CHF 40.51 | CAGR 0.0% | CAGR 4.7% | - |
| FCF per share | CHF 19.52 | CAGR 1.6% | CAGR 4.5% | - |
| Dividend per share | CHF 9.80 | CAGR 1.5% | CAGR 2.0% | - |
| Dividend yield | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | P68 |
| Payout ratio (FY2025) | 61.1% | 61.8% | 64.4% | P62 |
| Diluted shares | 796.8M | CAGR -1.5% | CAGR -0.8% | P32 |
| Buyback yield | -0.5% | 0.5% | - | P32 |
| Debt/equity | 0.91x | 0.93x | 0.84x | P34 |
| Enterprise value | CHF 332.8B | CAGR -2.6% | CAGR 1.0% | P90 |
| Long-term debt | CHF 26.73B | CAGR 20.9% | CAGR 6.0% | P70 |

## Company Note (H1 2026)

Written by AI from the data above.

**Roche's first half** of FY2026 showed revenue slipping 1.2% and diluted EPS down 7.7% on a reported basis. At the third-quarter call management pointed to three forces. Hemlibra and Ocrevus carried pharma growth. Kadcyla lost ground to competitors in the US and Europe, and China's pricing reforms kept weighing on diagnostics. A Japan ERP rollout also shifted shipment timing, which management called a one-time Q3 sales effect. The franchise is earning more than the price reflects: SE fair value of CHF 666 is 70.6% above the price.

**Management raised two product outlooks** for FY2026. Hemlibra moved to high single-digit growth from mid single-digit, and Alecensa to low single-digit growth from flat. Ocrevus at high single digits and Vabysmo at low double digits were maintained. Xolair holds near 20% growth this year but is expected flat in 2027 as biosimilars arrive. Strategy centres on obesity: enicepatide enters phase III against tirzepatide, and oral tifeglipron starts in early 2027. Analysts pressed on giredestrant's Medicare exposure, which management declined to break out.

**Analysts' adjusted figures show earnings growth resuming**. Adjusted EPS is set to rise 5.3% in FY2026 and 7.4% in FY2027, even as FY2026 revenue edges down 0.1%. That matches management's raised product outlooks: a flat top line this year, with sales rising again next year. Reported FY2026 EPS sits below the adjusted figure, so trailing and forward earnings are not directly comparable. The market asks for far less. The price implies revenue shrinking 5.5% a year, 5.3pp below consensus, a gap that leaves room for disappointment before the shares look stretched.

**Returns remain high but have eased**. ROE fell from 47.3% in FY2022 to 39.3% in FY2025, and ROIC from 35.2% to 30.8% over the same years. Cash conversion moved the other way, with FCF margin up from 21.8% to 23.8%. Return on assets holds at 12.6%, in line with its own median and steady over three years. Each of these return and margin measures sits above the peer median. Nothing in the record holds Quality back. The softer spot is Moat: retained earnings have added comparatively little market value.

**On cash flows the shares look cheap**. SE fair value of CHF 666 is 70.6% above the price, with high confidence. The multiples are less generous. EV/EBIT of 16.0x is 23% above its 10-year median of 13.0x. SE fair value points to upside, while the trailing P/E of 25.5x is above its 19.8x long-run median, though that P/E is on reported EPS. The analysts' weighted target of CHF 405 is 3.7% above the price. For the price to hold, revenue must keep growing rather than shrink. A second year of falling sales in FY2027 would show it is not.

**The SE Score** is 2 of 3. Quality earns three stars on a ROIC of 31% against a 6.0% cost of capital, with free cash flow at 128% of net income over five years and modest net debt. Moat earns two stars because ROIC has stayed above 15% in every one of the last ten years. It falls short of three because each CHF 1 retained created only CHF 0.80 of market value. Value earns three stars, with SE fair value 70.3% above the price. Value left the overall score where Quality and Moat put it.

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Weekly snapshot, not live data. For information only, not investment advice. Methodology: https://standard-equity.report/methodology