# Novo Nordisk (CPH:NOVO-B)

As of Sun 8 Nov 2026 12:00 UTC (weekly snapshot). Full report: https://standard-equity.report/CPH/NOVO-B

Price DKK 269.45 (DKK), market cap DKK 1.188T, Healthcare - Drug Manufacturers - General.

## Valuation

- SE Reference Value (expected value, DCF): DKK 584.75 (central 50% range DKK 467.63 to DKK 734.27), +117% against the price; range width moderate
- SE Grade: 3 of 3 (Value 3, Quality 3, Moat 3)
- Consensus Rating: Hold (Strong buy 5, Buy 0, Hold 15, Sell 1, Strong sell 5)
- Consensus Price (median): DKK 287.50, +7% against the price

## Key metrics

Financials in DKK. Peer percentile: 100 = best in the peer group.

| Metric | Now | 5Y median | 10Y median | Peers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | DKK 333.6B | CAGR 19.5% | CAGR 12.0% | P63 |
| Revenue growth | 5.7% | 25.0% | 9.1% | P40 |
| Gross margin | 82.3% | 83.9% | 84.1% | P93 |
| Operating margin | 47.9% | 45.1% | 43.2% | P97 |
| Net margin | 33.9% | 33.9% | 33.9% | P97 |
| FCF yield | 6.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | P73 |
| FCF margin | 21.9% | 34.6% | 32.9% | P63 |
| FCF / net income | 0.64x | 0.99x | 0.98x | P4 |
| ROIC | 46.0% | 68.2% | 84.2% | P90 |
| ROE | 58.4% | 72.0% | 74.0% | P93 |
| ROA | 18.9% | 23.0% | 27.8% | P93 |
| EPS | DKK 25.59 | CAGR 20.7% | CAGR 13.3% | - |
| EPS growth | 9.7% | 17.8% | 10.0% | P46 |
| Book value per share | DKK 49.24 | CAGR 26.4% | CAGR 19.3% | - |
| FCF per share | DKK 16.50 | CAGR 6.1% | CAGR 5.6% | - |
| Dividend per share | DKK 11.70 | CAGR 20.8% | CAGR 13.3% | - |
| Dividend yield | 4.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | P93 |
| Payout ratio (FY2025) | 50.8% | 50.5% | 50.8% | P38 |
| Diluted shares | 4,409.2M | CAGR -1.0% | CAGR -1.4% | P57 |
| Buyback yield | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | P57 |
| Debt/equity | 0.62x | 0.38x | 0.21x | P48 |
| Enterprise value | DKK 1.296T | CAGR 14.0% | CAGR 10.6% | P67 |
| Long-term debt | DKK 117.7B | CAGR 110.2% | CAGR 84.6% | P50 |

## Company Note (Q3 2026)

Written by AI from the data above.

**Novo Nordisk's third quarter turned** on obesity, where the Wegovy pill and the Wegovy 7.2 mg dose rollout drove sales, alongside GLP-1 volume growth across U.S. and International Operations. Revenue rose 5.6% to DKK 79.19B, well short of the 5-year pace. Diluted EPS fell 15.8% to DKK 3.79, although the comparison base was flattered by about DKK 9 billion of transformation costs a year earlier. The stock trades far below what the cash flows suggest: SE fair value of DKK 585 is 117.0% above the price.

**Management raised its FY2026 outlook** to adjusted sales and operating profit growth of -2% to +2% at constant exchange rates. It set free cash flow at DKK 60 billion to DKK 70 billion and expects the Wegovy pill in more than 20 markets by the first half of 2027. Pressed on a return to growth in 2027, management declined to guide. It conceded the category is flat excluding Bridge volumes. The CEO's priority was plain: "We need to get it to patients fast across channels." Accelerating quarterly revenue sits against flat consensus years.

**Analysts expect EPS** to fall 2.2% in FY2026 and to edge up 0.6% in FY2027, on FY2026 revenue down 0.2%. The price asks for less than that. It implies revenue shrinking 8.9% a year, 8.7pp below the consensus. Our projection is well above consensus, at FY2026 EPS of DKK 26.51 within a +/-6% interval, though the wider FY2027 range shows real uncertainty. Novo has beaten estimates in 6 of the last 8 quarters, so even the cautious consensus has tended to prove too low.

**Returns remain exceptional**, though the trend is worse. ROIC moved from 73.4% in FY2022 to 42.6% in FY2025. ROE slipped from 72.0% to 60.7% over the same span, and the FCF margin fell from 37.7% to 19.1%. Gross margin, at 82.3%, is in line with its 5-year median after easing 1.5pp over three years, and ranks at the 97th percentile of the nearest-sized peers. Falling cash conversion is the weak spot in an otherwise elite profile, with ROIC and ROE still well above peer medians.

**The P/E** of 10.5x sits 52% below its 10-year median of 22.1x. SE fair value of DKK 585 is 117.0% above the price, with medium confidence. The median analyst target of DKK 288 is 6.7% above the price, a far more modest gap. For the price to hold, the Wegovy pill and new launches must offset loss of exclusivity in international markets, China headwinds and payer reticence over volume. A quarterly revenue decline would show that offset is failing.

**The SE Score** is 3 of 3. Quality earns its stars on a three-year median ROIC of 68%, far above the cost of capital, with modest net debt at 0.5x EBITDA. Moat reflects ROIC above 15% in each of the last ten years, a ten-year median of 84% and a stable gross margin. Value is strong too, because SE fair value sits well above the price and the P/E is far below its own history. The price left the business tier as it was, so the overall score stands at the top rung.

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Weekly snapshot, not live data. For information only, not investment advice. Methodology: https://standard-equity.report/methodology