# Grupo México (BMV:GMEXICO-B)

As of Sun 8 Nov 2026 12:00 UTC (weekly snapshot). Full report: https://standard-equity.report/BMV/GMEXICO-B

Price MXN 217.70 (MXN), market cap MXN 1.704T, Materials - Other Industrial Metals & Mining.

## Valuation

- SE Reference Value (expected value, DCF): MXN 230.65 (central 50% range MXN 197.01 to MXN 273.64), +6% against the price; range width narrow
- SE Grade: 1 of 3 (Value 2, Quality 3, Moat 2)
- Consensus Rating: Buy (Strong buy 4, Buy 1, Hold 9, Sell 0, Strong sell 0)
- Consensus Price (median): MXN 247.15, +14% against the price

## Key metrics

Financials in USD. Peer percentile: 100 = best in the peer group.

| Metric | Now | 5Y median | 10Y median | Peers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $22.77B | CAGR 10.8% | CAGR 9.3% | P80 |
| Revenue growth | 35.0% | 12.4% | 7.2% | P57 |
| Gross margin | 61.2% | 54.0% | 52.0% | P83 |
| Operating margin | 53.4% | 43.0% | 40.2% | P97 |
| Net margin | 31.8% | 23.5% | 21.6% | P93 |
| FCF yield | 7.7% | 10.1% | 9.7% | P80 |
| FCF margin | 30.4% | 26.2% | 21.9% | P93 |
| FCF / net income | 0.96x | 1.17x | 1.20x | P75 |
| ROIC | 25.9% | 18.5% | 15.5% | P80 |
| ROE | 29.3% | 19.0% | 18.0% | P77 |
| ROA | 14.3% | 9.8% | 8.6% | P93 |
| EPS | $0.94 | CAGR 16.6% | CAGR 18.7% | - |
| EPS growth | 63.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | P36 |
| Book value per share | $3.45 | CAGR 10.3% | CAGR 9.2% | - |
| FCF per share | $0.90 | CAGR 3.3% | CAGR 20.2% | - |
| Dividend per share | $0.31 | CAGR 12.0% | CAGR 27.4% | - |
| Dividend yield | 2.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | P69 |
| Payout ratio | 34.0% | 49.1% | 51.5% | P68 |
| Diluted shares | 7,825.1M | - | - | P97 |
| Buyback yield | -1.4% | - | - | P97 |
| Debt/equity | 0.46x | 0.43x | 0.53x | P43 |
| Enterprise value | $98.91B | CAGR 15.1% | CAGR 8.9% | P90 |
| Long-term debt | $13.39B | CAGR 2.7% | CAGR 3.9% | P83 |

## Company Note (Q3 2026)

Written by AI from the data above.

**Grupo México's third quarter was a price story**. Higher copper, molybdenum, zinc and silver prices drove record mining sales and EBITDA, more than offsetting lower ore grades in Peru that cut copper output against 2025. Revenue rose 37.9% from a year earlier and diluted EPS rose 53.8%, both far ahead of five-year compounding, while consolidating Saavi from 8 September lifted the Energy division. The stock looks fairly priced: SE fair value of MXN 231 is 5.9% above the price.

**Management's 2027 guidance centred** on the non-mining divisions. Transportation is guided to 5%-8% volume growth, led by intermodal and agricultural traffic, and 8%-10% revenue growth in dollars, backed by a $619 million capital budget. Saavi should bring roughly $640 million of EBITDA with a full year consolidated, and the infrastructure chief called the group "the largest privately owned power generation company in the country". Analysts asked about the stock dividend and Rumo. Management said the focus was growth and flexibility, and it declined to comment on Rumo. Tía María is due to start operating in the first half of 2028.

**Consensus has FY2026 revenue** up 27.1% and EPS up 38.2%. Growth then nearly stalls, with EPS up just 5.5% in FY2027. That flat second year sits uneasily with accelerating revenue and with management's growth guidance for Transportation and Saavi. The price implies revenue growth of only 4.6% a year, 22.6pp below the FY2026 consensus. The market is therefore not paying for metal prices to stay this high, and a few strong years can still leave the valuation near fair value rather than well below it.

**Profitability has improved steadily**. Operating margin rose from 43.0% in FY2022 to 47.6% in FY2025 and now stands at 53.4%, above its five-year median and at the 97th percentile of similarly sized miners. ROIC climbed from 18.5% to 23.1% over the same three years. Net margin rose from 22.7% to 27.1%. Nothing in these levels holds Quality back. The constraint is that the current margins sit well above the company's own history, so part of today's profitability depends on metal prices.

**SE fair value of MXN** 231 is 5.9% above the price, with high confidence. The median analyst target of MXN 247 sits 13.5% above the price. The P/E of 12.5x is above its ten-year median of 11.0x, so the stock is not cheap against its own record. For the price to hold, the margin gains have to survive as FY2027 earnings growth slows. Fuel costs pushing up mining cash costs and disruption in the Chemical segment are the risks management flagged. An operating margin falling back toward its five-year median would show the price was too generous.

**The SE Score** is 1 of 3. Quality earns three stars because ROIC runs well above the cost of capital, earnings convert fully into free cash flow and debt is light against EBITDA. Moat earns two stars because returns have exceeded 15% in only half of the last ten years, though each dollar retained has created $2.70 of market value. Value earns two stars with the price near SE fair value, which left the business tier unchanged. The score was then lowered because the company's five-year return over the hurdle does not rank in the top tenth of companies.

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Weekly snapshot, not live data. For information only, not investment advice. Methodology: https://standard-equity.report/methodology