# National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB)

As of Sun 8 Nov 2026 12:00 UTC (weekly snapshot). Full report: https://standard-equity.report/ASX/NAB

Price A$40.00 (AUD), market cap A$124.4B, Financials - Banks - Diversified.

## Valuation

- SE Reference Value (expected value, DCF): A$31.36 (central 50% range A$27.37 to A$36.52), -22% against the price; range width narrow
- SE Grade: 0 of 3 (half) (Value 0, Quality 1, Moat 2)
- Consensus Rating: Hold (Strong buy 4, Buy 0, Hold 6, Sell 2, Strong sell 2)
- Consensus Price (mean): A$38.78, -3% against the price

## Key metrics

Financials in AUD. Peer percentile: 100 = best in the peer group.

| Metric | Now | 5Y median | 10Y median | Peers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | A$22.24B | CAGR 5.9% | CAGR 2.1% | P20 |
| Revenue growth | 6.6% | 6.6% | 0.5% | P23 |
| NIM | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | P67 |
| Efficiency ratio | 54.0% | 48.5% | 47.1% | - |
| Net margin | 27.6% | 33.7% | 30.6% | P53 |
| Net interest income | A$18.49B | CAGR 6.0% | CAGR 3.6% | - |
| Net interest income growth | 6.3% | 6.3% | 2.4% | P37 |
| ROTE | 10.5% | 12.4% | 11.7% | P27 |
| ROE | 9.8% | 11.3% | 10.5% | P30 |
| ROA | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | P17 |
| EPS | A$1.92 | CAGR 1.3% | CAGR 37.1% | - |
| EPS growth | -11.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | P13 |
| Book value per share | A$19.55 | CAGR 2.0% | CAGR 0.8% | - |
| Tangible book value per share | A$18.18 | CAGR 1.9% | CAGR 1.2% | - |
| Dividend per share | A$1.70 | CAGR 6.0% | CAGR -1.5% | - |
| Dividend yield | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | P73 |
| Payout ratio | 85.5% | 75.9% | 76.6% | P77 |
| Diluted shares | 3,111.2M | CAGR -2.0% | CAGR 1.4% | P10 |
| Buyback yield | -2.3% | 2.1% | -2.3% | P10 |
| Equity/assets | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | P30 |
| Assets | A$1.146T | CAGR 4.4% | CAGR 4.0% | P23 |
| Long-term debt | A$152.0B | CAGR 0.8% | CAGR 2.0% | P33 |

## Company Note (H2 2026)

Written by AI from the data above.

**NAB's second half was carried** by Business and Private Banking, where strong business lending and higher margins lifted profit. Replicating portfolio returns widened margins, partly offset by lending competition and deposit mix, and revenue rose 4.5% year on year. Credit impairment charges climbed, including an A$103 million forward-looking provision top-up, and diluted EPS slipped 1.1%. Faster revenue does not yet justify A$40: SE fair value of A$31 is 21.6% below the price.

**Revenue growth is accelerating**, against 1.3% a year earlier, but management is resetting costs. Guidance for FY2027 is new: underlying cost growth below 3%, a restructuring charge in the first quarter, and business credit growth moderating to 8%. Up to 2,500 roles go by September 2027, alongside fewer consultants and wider use of AI. Pressed on rising watch loans, management said about half reflects faster early-warning transfers rather than deterioration.

**Analysts expect earnings** to stall before recovering: consensus EPS growth of -0.2% in FY2027 on revenue growth of 1.9%, then 5.6% EPS growth in FY2028. That flat year sits awkwardly beside the revenue acceleration, as costs, restructuring and higher provisions absorb the top-line gains. Our projections sit below consensus in both years, within a wide interval. The record offers little comfort either: EPS beat the estimate in 0 of the last 1 quarters.

**Profitability has eroded steadily**. The efficiency ratio moved from 45.4% in FY2023 to 54.0% in FY2026, worse, while net margin fell from 35.9% to 27.6% over the same span. ROTE slid from 13.2% to 10.5%. Return on assets is 0.5%, below its 0.6% five-year median and down from 0.7% three years ago, ranking in the 17th percentile of peers. That thin ROA, and an ROE only modestly above the cost of equity, hold Quality back.

**The shares are priced well ahead of earnings**. The P/E of 20.9x is 27% above its 10-year median of 16.4x, pricier on its own history. SE fair value of A$31 is 21.6% below the price, with high confidence. The weighted analyst target of A$39 sits 3.0% below the price. For A$40 to hold, results must beat the model's base case, with the cost programme lifting returns; an FY2027 EPS print at or below the flat consensus would show they are not.

**The SE Score is ½** of 3. Quality earns one star because ROE of about 10% clears an 8.5% cost of equity by only two points, on a return on assets of 0.5%. Moat earns two stars: each A$1 of retained earnings has created A$5.67 of market value, even though ROE topped 12% in just one of ten years. Value earns no stars, with SE fair value 22.6% below the price and P/B 22% above its own median; the price lowered the business tier one notch.

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Weekly snapshot, not live data. For information only, not investment advice. Methodology: https://standard-equity.report/methodology