# Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG)

As of Sun 8 Nov 2026 12:00 UTC (weekly snapshot). Full report: https://standard-equity.report/ASX/MQG

Price A$248.86 (AUD), market cap A$92.03B, Financials - Capital Markets.

## Valuation

- SE Reference Value (expected value, DCF): A$161.29 (central 50% range A$149.21 to A$178.53), -35% against the price; range width narrow
- SE Grade: 0 of 3 (half) (Value 0, Quality 1, Moat 3)
- Consensus Rating: Buy (Strong buy 5, Buy 4, Hold 3, Sell 1, Strong sell 1)
- Consensus Price (mean): A$278.22, +12% against the price

## Key metrics

Financials in AUD. Peer percentile: 100 = best in the peer group.

| Metric | Now | 5Y median | 10Y median | Peers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | A$21.15B | CAGR 8.5% | CAGR 8.1% | P80 |
| Revenue growth | 17.4% | 10.6% | 5.9% | P17 |
| NIM | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | P11 |
| Efficiency ratio | 60.6% | 63.5% | 68.2% | - |
| Net margin | 26.0% | 23.4% | 22.0% | P41 |
| Net interest income | A$4.519B | CAGR 13.6% | CAGR 7.4% | - |
| Net interest income growth (FY2026) | 18.4% | 14.2% | 5.9% | P11 |
| ROTE | 16.2% | 13.9% | 14.9% | P50 |
| ROE | 15.4% | 13.1% | 13.6% | P50 |
| ROA | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | P13 |
| EPS | A$14.55 | CAGR 9.1% | CAGR 8.1% | - |
| EPS growth | 50.8% | 7.1% | 9.2% | P82 |
| Book value per share | A$97.21 | CAGR 9.4% | CAGR 8.6% | - |
| Tangible book value per share | A$89.93 | CAGR 10.7% | CAGR 8.7% | - |
| Dividend per share | A$7.45 | CAGR 8.3% | CAGR 4.5% | - |
| Dividend yield | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | P58 |
| Payout ratio | 50.8% | 57.0% | 61.6% | P46 |
| Diluted shares | 369.8M | CAGR 0.8% | CAGR 1.1% | P33 |
| Buyback yield | -0.5% | -3.6% | -1.3% | P33 |
| Equity/assets | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.7% | P14 |
| Assets | A$578.3B | CAGR 17.1% | CAGR 12.8% | P86 |
| Long-term debt | A$133.5B | CAGR 9.7% | CAGR 7.2% | P83 |

## Company Note (H1 2027)

Written by AI from the data above.

**Macquarie's first half of FY2027 was carried** by asset sales and trading. Diluted EPS rose 49.3% on the year, well ahead of a five-year compound rate of 9.1%. The AirFinance realization and gains on asset sales lifted Macquarie Asset Management, and oil trading plus client risk management raised commodities income. Macquarie Capital moved the other way, held back by the timing of equity realizations and lower prepayment income. The stock is priced above what its results support: SE fair value of A$162 is 34.9% below the price.

**Revenue growth is slowing**, to 12.2% in the half from 22.2% in the second half of FY2026. FY2027 guidance was mixed. Management maintained its call for higher asset management income, subject to realization timing, and for slightly higher commodities and markets income. It lowered its outlook for Macquarie Capital and introduced guidance for slightly lower banking margins. Analysts pressed on second-half realizations, and management said assets can be held if markets are weak. The CEO noted, "Our loss ratio is 0.3%." The plan includes growing private credit funds and continued technology spending.

**Consensus agrees** with that slower pace. It sees FY2027 EPS growth of 5.3% on revenue down 1.6%, then EPS growth of 4.0% in FY2028. That is a sharp step down from a half in which earnings jumped. The lowered Macquarie Capital outlook and slightly lower banking margins point the same way. Our own projection sits above consensus on both revenue and EPS, but with wide intervals. At today's price, the market is paying for growth closer to our numbers than to the analysts' modest path, and that leaves little room for realizations to slip.

**Returns have eased** over three years. Return on tangible equity moved from 17.1% in FY2023 to 13.9% in FY2026. Net margin is 26.0%, in line with its five-year median, down 2.3 points over three years and at the 41st percentile of peers. Return on assets is steady at 1.0% and below the peer median. Net interest margin is steady at 0.8%. What holds Quality back is the thin spread of return on equity over the cost of equity, along with a share count that rose over the past year.

**SE fair value** and the analyst target point opposite ways. The star- and recency-weighted average analyst target sits 11.8% above the price, while SE fair value of A$162 is 34.9% below the price, with high confidence. Trailing P/E of 17.1x is above the 10-year own median of 15.7x, so the shares already trade rich to their own history. For the price to hold, results must keep beating the model's base case. Realizations would need to land in the second half as management expects. A further slide in return on tangible equity would show they are not.

**The SE Score is ½** of 3. Quality earns one star because return on equity of about 12% clears a 9.7% cost of equity by only around two points, and equity is a thin share of assets. Moat earns three stars: return on equity topped 12% in eight of ten years, and each retained dollar created A$4.28 of market value. Value earns no stars, with the price well above SE fair value. That lowered the business tier one notch to the half rung.

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Weekly snapshot, not live data. For information only, not investment advice. Methodology: https://standard-equity.report/methodology