# BHP Group (ASX:BHP)

As of Sun 8 Nov 2026 12:00 UTC (weekly snapshot). Full report: https://standard-equity.report/ASX/BHP

Price A$57.62 (AUD), market cap A$292.9B, Materials - Other Industrial Metals & Mining.

## Valuation

- SE Reference Value (expected value, DCF): A$79.51 (central 50% range A$65.72 to A$98.25), +38% against the price; range width moderate
- SE Grade: 1 of 3 (Value 3, Quality 3, Moat 2)
- Consensus Rating: Hold (Strong buy 3, Buy 2, Hold 11, Sell 1, Strong sell 0)
- Consensus Price (mean): A$61.60, +7% against the price

## Key metrics

Financials in USD. Peer percentile: 100 = best in the peer group.

| Metric | Now | 5Y median | 10Y median | Peers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $58.76B | CAGR 0.5% | CAGR 5.6% | P87 |
| Revenue growth | 14.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | P40 |
| Gross margin | 85.9% | 82.2% | 82.7% | P100 |
| Operating margin | 42.1% | 40.0% | 37.9% | P87 |
| Net margin | 16.7% | 17.6% | 18.1% | P63 |
| FCF yield | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | P66 |
| FCF margin | 19.6% | 20.5% | 24.2% | P76 |
| FCF / net income | 1.17x | 0.99x | 1.25x | P82 |
| ROIC | 21.8% | 22.4% | 20.0% | P73 |
| ROE | 19.9% | 19.9% | 18.6% | P70 |
| ROA | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | P80 |
| EPS | $1.93 | CAGR -2.8% | CAGR 6.4% | - |
| EPS growth | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.9% | P19 |
| Book value per share | $10.01 | CAGR -0.2% | CAGR -0.8% | - |
| FCF per share | $2.26 | CAGR -11.7% | CAGR -0.1% | - |
| Dividend per share | $1.72 | CAGR -10.6% | CAGR 8.4% | - |
| Dividend yield | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | P83 |
| Payout ratio | 89.0% | 66.7% | 79.8% | P93 |
| Diluted shares | 5,083.0M | CAGR 0.1% | CAGR -0.5% | P29 |
| Buyback yield | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.0% | P29 |
| Debt/equity | 0.50x | 0.49x | 0.49x | P40 |
| Enterprise value | $216.4B | CAGR 2.1% | CAGR 5.6% | P100 |
| Long-term debt | $25.74B | CAGR 6.3% | CAGR -1.8% | P93 |

## Company Note (H2 2026)

Written by AI from the data above.

**Copper carried BHP's second half**. Revenue rose 18.3% year on year in H2 FY2026 as higher copper prices and strong operations delivered record copper EBITDA, with copper revenue up 28.9% for the year and now roughly half the group. Unit cost gains and cost discipline offset currency, inflation and diesel pressures, and byproduct credits supported costs at Escondida and Copper SA. Diluted EPS still fell, so the top-line strength has not reached profit. The shares look undervalued: SE fair value of A$80 is 38.0% above the price.

**Momentum is building**, with revenue growth accelerating from 10.8% in H1 to 18.3% in H2, while consensus expects revenue to drift lower over the next two years. Management guided to around $50 billion of attributable free cash flow over five years at spot prices after funding growth. It expects copper volumes to grow around 5% a year to 2035 and says Jansen Stage 1 remains on track for first production mid-next calendar year. An Escondida concentrator decision is expected in 2027 or 2028. On safety, the CEO said "we are not there yet."

**Consensus sees little earnings progress**. FY2027 EPS is forecast to slip 2.0% and FY2028 EPS to edge up 1.3%. The price implies revenue falling 4.2% a year over five years, steeper than the 1.1% decline consensus pencils in for FY2027. Our own projection sits below consensus on earnings but above it on FY2028 revenue, with wide intervals. The beat record is thin, with a beat in 0 of the last 1 quarters, so near-term forecasts may lean on copper prices holding rather than on surprises.

**The profitability picture is mixed but still strong**. Gross margin widened from 79.7% in FY2023 to 85.9% in FY2026. That leaves it in line with its five-year median and at the 97th percentile of peers nearest in size. Lower down, the trend is worse. Net margin slid from 24.0% to 16.7% over the same three years, and ROE fell from 28.9% to 19.9%. The gap between a rising gross margin and falling net returns is what currently holds the quality record back from improving.

**SE fair value** of A$80 is 38.0% above the price, a medium-confidence estimate. The analyst target is 6.9% above the price, a far smaller gap. SE fair value points to upside while the P/E of 20.5x sits above its 10-year median of 15.4x. For the price to hold, copper earnings must keep offsetting softer iron ore and coal. The Jansen overrun and the Peak Downs fatality also need to stay contained. A sustained fall in copper EBITDA margin would show it is not holding.

**The SE Score** is 1 of 3. Quality earns three stars because ROIC of 22% runs well above the 8.2% cost of capital, backed by low net debt. Moat earns two stars, with ROIC above 15% in seven of the last ten years. Value earns three stars because the price sits below fair value. Value left the business tier as it was, but a rank cap lowered the stars from two. BHP's five-year return over the hurdle falls short of the top tenth of companies.

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Weekly snapshot, not live data. For information only, not investment advice. Methodology: https://standard-equity.report/methodology