# ASML Holding (AMS:ASML)

As of Sun 8 Nov 2026 12:00 UTC (weekly snapshot). Full report: https://standard-equity.report/AMS/ASML

Price €1,283.60 (EUR), market cap €490.8B, Technology - Semiconductor Equipment & Materials.

## Valuation

- SE Reference Value (expected value, DCF): €2,314.36 (central 50% range €1,886.54 to €2,892.07), +80% against the price; range width moderate
- SE Grade: 3 of 3 (Value 3, Quality 3, Moat 3)
- Consensus Rating: Strong Buy (Strong buy 31, Buy 7, Hold 2, Sell 0, Strong sell 1)
- Consensus Price (mean): €2,157.82, +68% against the price

## Key metrics

Financials in EUR. Peer percentile: 100 = best in the peer group.

| Metric | Now | 5Y median | 10Y median | Peers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | €39.47B | CAGR 18.5% | CAGR 18.9% | P73 |
| Revenue growth | 22.5% | 15.6% | 18.3% | P37 |
| Gross margin | 54.3% | 51.3% | 49.6% | P53 |
| Operating margin | 38.6% | 32.8% | 29.8% | P70 |
| Net margin | 34.1% | 28.4% | 26.0% | P63 |
| FCF yield | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | P83 |
| FCF margin | 53.6% | 33.9% | 24.5% | P97 |
| FCF / net income | 1.57x | 1.20x | 1.00x | P97 |
| ROIC | 91.0% | 82.9% | 45.6% | P90 |
| ROE | 65.6% | 50.5% | 37.1% | P86 |
| ROA | 22.8% | 19.0% | 14.3% | P75 |
| EPS | €35.14 | CAGR 23.9% | CAGR 23.7% | - |
| EPS growth | 43.9% | 28.4% | 28.4% | P33 |
| Book value per share | €57.53 | CAGR 8.8% | CAGR 7.7% | - |
| FCF per share | €55.18 | CAGR 26.7% | CAGR 27.7% | - |
| Dividend per share | €7.81 | CAGR 22.2% | CAGR 22.6% | - |
| Dividend yield | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | P36 |
| Payout ratio | 22.3% | 33.3% | 33.1% | P54 |
| Diluted shares | 382.4M | CAGR -1.5% | CAGR -1.1% | P80 |
| Buyback yield | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | P80 |
| Debt/equity | 0.09x | 0.37x | 0.30x | P70 |
| Enterprise value | €479.5B | CAGR 17.7% | CAGR 24.1% | P87 |
| Long-term debt | €1.963B | CAGR -9.4% | CAGR -0.7% | P30 |

## Company Note (Q3 2026)

Written by AI from the data above.

**ASML's third quarter turned the lithography upcycle** into hard numbers. Revenue rose 55.2% year on year to €11.66B and diluted EPS jumped 135.9%. Management tied the EUV gains to more tools shipped and a higher selling price on the 3800 systems. Installed-base sales grew as customers paid for upgrades to squeeze capacity from existing tools, and applications sales rose on the need for more process control at leading nodes. The shares look underpriced: SE fair value of €2,314 is 80.3% above the price.

**On the January call**, now about nine months old, management guided FY2026 net sales to €34-39B with gross margin of 51-53%. It expected China to fall to roughly 20% of sales and called that a normalization of the COVID-era backlog. Asked whether job cuts clash with growth, it said engineering capacity will rise. Its plans include a second Brainport campus and a High Productivity Platform for early next decade. Revenue growth has since accelerated, and consensus now sits above the top of that sales range.

**Consensus expects FY2026 EPS** to rise 67.3% on revenue growth of 36.1%, with EPS growth of 36.0% following in FY2027. The price implies revenue growth of only 12.8% a year over five years, well short of the 36.1% analysts pencil in for FY2026. That gap gives the shares room even if growth cools sharply. Our own projections sit below consensus for both years, though they still point to strong gains. ASML has beaten EPS estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters.

**Returns are exceptional and above peers**. ROIC is 91.0%, in line with its five-year median, after rising 2.9pp over three years, and it ranks in the 87th percentile of peers. FCF margin is 53.6% against a 33.9% median, although the three-year trend slipped 0.1pp. That margin ranks at the 93rd percentile of peers. FCF runs at 1.57x net income, above its 1.20x median. The one soft spot is ROE, which moved from 59.4% in FY2022 to 50.5% in FY2025, a worse trend.

**The P/E** of 36.5x sits above its ten-year median of 31.4x, so the stock is not cheap on trailing earnings. Cash flows tell a different story: SE fair value of €2,314 is 80.3% above the price, with medium confidence. The analysts' mean target of €2,158 is 68.1% above the price. For the price to hold, revenue must more than double over a decade. Annual growth sliding toward the price-implied pace, as fab readiness or energy limits delay tool deliveries, would show it is not.

**The SE Score** is 3 of 3. Quality earns its stars on a return on invested capital of 86%, far above the 11.6% cost of capital, backed by net cash. Moat earns its stars because ROIC has stayed above 15% in nine of the last ten years, with a stable gross margin. Value reflects a price below SE fair value, which left the business tier as it was. Even after the rally, the market is paying less than the cash flows suggest for a franchise that keeps compounding.

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Weekly snapshot, not live data. For information only, not investment advice. Methodology: https://standard-equity.report/methodology